Why Fraud Spikes After New Year’s and Simple Ways to Stay Ahead

 

Why Fraud Spikes After New Year’s and Simple Ways to Stay Ahead

January feels like a reset for many people.

Goals get written down. Schedules go back to normal. Shopping slows down a bit. Then the follow-up hits. Returns start. Refunds come in. Bills show up. Account update emails land in your inbox.

Scammers plan around this month. They know people skim. They know “urgent” messages get quicker clicks when life is busy.This post explains why fraud rises after New Year’s and how you can stay ahead with simple moves that fit real life.

Why Fraud Rises Right After New Year’s 

Holiday season creates a huge wave of online activity. January is when the leftovers start causing problems.

1) Return season creates cover

Returns are normal in January. That is exactly why return scams work.

The National Retail Federation and Happy Returns forecast that consumers will return nearly $850 billion worth of merchandise in 2025. The same research notes that 9% of returns are fraudulent. That is a lot of “normal-looking” refund traffic for scammers to hide inside.

Everyday example
You are standing in line at a store. You are checking your phone. A message pops up saying your refund needs “one quick confirmation.” You tap because you want it done. 

That moment is what scammers want. You are distracted. You are rushed. You are trying to finish a task.

2) Password reuse gets tested harder

Holiday shopping often creates new store logins. Many people reuse passwords across accounts. Scammers bet on that.

Akamai’s 2024 security research tracked credential stuffing at massive scale. It reported that attack volume rose from nearly 14 billion attacks per month at the start of 2023 to more than 26 billion monthly attacks in June 2024. More automated login attempts means more chances for one account to fall.

3) Life speeds up and money stress rises

Work returns. School returns. Bills hit. Emails stack up. Skimming becomes normal.

Money related messages also feel more believable when statements arrive, subscriptions renew, and buy now pay later payments come due.

Fraud messages often push urgency with lines like:

• Your payment failed
• Your account will be suspended today
• Verify now to avoid fees
• Unusual activity detected

Urgency is the tool.

Fraud Scams That Spike After New Year’s

Fraud follows habits. January habits are predictable. That leads to predictable scams.

1) Account takeover attempts 

Account takeover often starts with a stolen password. Email accounts are a top target because email unlocks password resets for other accounts.

Watch for signs like:

• Password reset emails you did not request
• Login alerts from devices you do not recognize
• New forwarding rules you never set
• Changes to your recovery phone or email

Phone calls can also be part of this. Some scammers call and act like support. They try to get you to share a code.

Real Life Example:
You get a call that says your bank flagged your account. The caller sounds calm. They know your first name. Then they ask for the code you “just received.”

That is your signal to stop. Hang up. Use the bank’s official number from its website. Do not keep talking on the incoming call.

Where reverse phone lookup helps
If a number feels off, a reverse phone lookup may help you check whether the caller’s number matches the name they claim. It may also show basic details that help you spot a mismatch.

2) Fake refund and return messages

Return season makes this scam easy to hide.

Common messages claim:

• Your refund is on hold
• Your return needs confirmation
• Your card could not be refunded
• Click to finalize your refund

A simple habit helps here. Avoid logging in through links inside unexpected messages. Open a new tab. Type the company website yourself.

Where email verification helps
Email verification tools can sometimes flag risky patterns. Examples include an email that looks inactive, disposable, or set up for abuse. It adds one more layer before you click. Also, check the sender domain and the reply-to field. If anything feels odd, stop and go to the site directly.

3) Early tax-themed scams

Tax scams can show up early in the year.

Some messages claim:

• You qualify for an early refund
• Your identity must be confirmed
• A form is missing
• Your account is under review

Rushed tone is a red flag. Random links are a red flag. Requests for personal data through email are a red flag.

4) Job and side income scams

New Year's goals often include earning more money. Scammers target that.

Fake job listings and fake recruiters can look real. Some even use real company names.

Red flags include:
No real interview
Pay that sounds too high for the role
Requests for upfront fees
Pressure to act today
Requests for “verification” documents too early

Where people search helps
A people search tool can sometimes help you sanity check a recruiter's identity. If you have a name, phone, or email, it may show whether there is any history that matches the person’s claims. You might see signals like possible aliases, past locations, or related contact points. If nothing lines up, or the details conflict, that gap matters.

Real Life Example:
A “recruiter” asks you to send your ID within the first two messages. They also want your bank info for “direct deposit setup.” That is too soon. A real hiring process does not start with sensitive documents.

Why These Scams Work

Scams win when they match what you already expect in January.

Returns, bills, account updates, taxes, and job searches. Familiar topics lower defenses.

Emotion also pushes fast decisions, such as:

• Fear of losing access
• Hope for a refund
• Stress about bills
• Excitement about a job offer

Fraud only needs one missed detail.

How to Stay Ahead in January

This stays practical. It stays realistic. You do not need to do everything at once.

1. Start with one anchor move

Email is the anchor. It controls resets. It controls alerts. It controls access.

Do these today:

• Change your email password
• Turn on two-step verification
• Review recovery settings and remove anything outdated
• Remove devices you do not recognize

This blocks many takeover attempts.

2. Add a weekly 10-minute check

Weekly checks catch issues early. They also help you feel in control.

Look at:

• Bank accounts
• Credit cards
• Payment apps
• Shopping accounts

Watch for:

• New device logins
• New shipping addresses
• New saved cards
• Charges you do not recognize

Pick a consistent day. Sunday afternoon works for many people. Any day works if you stick to it.

3. Use one simple rule for refund messages

Before clicking, ask three questions:

1. Did I request this?
2. Can I confirm this inside my account instead?
3. Does the sender look accurate?

A quick email verification habit helps here, too. Check the sender domain. Check the reply-to field. If anything feels odd, stop and go to the site directly.

4. Use a call and text safety routine

• Do not share codes
• Hang up if the caller pressures you
• Use a reverse phone lookup on the number
• Call the official number listed on the company website

This routine protects you even when you feel unsure.

5. Watch for “too fast” requests

Slow down when someone asks for any of these early:

• Your ID
• Your Social Security number
• A one-time code
• Payment through gift cards
• “Verification” fees

The timing is the warning sign.

Healthy Habits That Help All Year

1. Use different passwords

One password should not unlock multiple accounts.

Password managers help reduce reuse. That lowers risk if one account gets exposed.

2. Keep devices updated

Updates patch known weaknesses.

Update:

• Phone software
• Browsers
• Apps
• Laptop updates

Delaying updates increases risk.

3. Share less personal data online

Oversharing can make scams easier.

Be careful with public posts about:

• Travel plans
• Big purchases
• New jobs
• Personal milestones

Small details add up.

Final Thoughts

January is busy. That is why scams work so well this time of year. The goal is not to catch everything. It is to slow down just enough to spot what feels off. 

Secure your email, do quick weekly checks, and never rush through unexpected messages. Those few habits go a long way and fit into real life.